Caveat Suffragator

Another pick

2006-01-23T17:08:00.000-05:00

Well, I ran my program without any adjustments (save two) for a Strategic Counsel poll, and I ended up with:
131 Tories
73 Liberals
61 Bloc
42 NDP
1 Independent (Portneuf)
I adjusted Surrey North from Other to NDP and Portneuf from Tory to Independent.

I'll report on the veracity of all three predictions (/308 for the seat-by-seat; 'how far was it off' for the other two) on Tuesday.
Hopefully, I'll have a results report up when I get stuff; that will, with any luck, begin about two to three hours from now.

Second part of the second set

2006-01-22T23:00:00.000-05:00

Bizarre SES poll...apparently, they careen left on Sunday. Huh.

Anyway:
Cardigan Liberal Tory
Malpeque Liberal Liberal

Random-Burin-St. George's Liberal NDP

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour Liberal NDP

Louis-Hebert Bloc Bloc

LaSalle-Emard Liberal Bloc Note: If correct, this signals the defeat of Paul Martin.
Notre-Dame Grace-Lachine Liberal Liberal
Pierrefonds Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville Marie Liberal Liberal

Regina Qu'Apelle Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Liberal

Edmonton Centre Liberal Tory

With just Ontario and British Columbia to finish up, we now have:
Tories 122
Liberals 64
Bloc 59
NDP 26
1 Independent
36 seats left TCTC

Skeena Bulkley Valley NDP NDP
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Tory
Newton North Delta Tory NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP NDP
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal NDP
West Vancouver Sea to Sky Country Tory Tory
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca Liberal NDP
Victoria Liberal NDP

Ottawa South Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal NDP
Kenora Liberal NDP
Nickel Belt Liberal NDP
Nipissing-Tamiskaming Liberal Tory
Sudbury Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal NDP

London Fanshawe (O'Brien) NDP
London North Centre Liberal Liberal
London West Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Tory

Peterborough Liberal Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Tory
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal NDP
Davenport Liberal NDP
Parkdale-High Park Liberal NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Tory
Brampton West Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Erindale (Parrish) Tory
Mississauga-South Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Tory
Oakville Liberal Tory
Hamilton Mountain Liberal NDP
Welland Liberal NDP

Conservative Party 138
Liberal Party 65
Bloc Quebecois 59
New Democrats 45
1 Independent
Most Likely Scenario: Conservative minority government
Conservatives would need an extra 17 seats to form a majority government.

Now, that's my "scientific" pick.

My "feel" pick:
Conservative Party 152
Bloc Quebecois 62
Liberal Party 58
New Democrats 38
No Independents

Twenty hours 'til the polls close...let's go, Tories.

First bit of the second set

2006-01-22T19:48:00.000-05:00

Calls I am now prepared to make:
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Tory
Surrey North (Cadman) NDP
Palliser Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Humboldt Tory Tory
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont (Kilgour) Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Bloc
Lac St. Louis Liberal Liberal
Western Arctic Liberal NDP

OK...thus
119 Tories
57 Bloc
59 Liberals
24 NDP
1 Independent
48 seats Too Close to Call

BC, QC, ON

2006-01-22T12:40:00.000-05:00

And here, my friends, are my initial calls for British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. There are 44 ridings listed as being Too Close to Call; I will post projections on that along with a final seat count sometime late tonight. I am reserving judgment on Skeena-Bulkley Valley in BC, New Westminster-Coquitlam in BC, Lac-Saint-Louis, Notre-Dame-Grace-Lachine, and Westmount-Ville-Marie in Montreal, Louis-Hebert in Quebec, Ottawa South in NE Ont, Nipissing-Tamiskaming in NE Ont, Etobicoke Lakeshore in the GTA and Brampton West.
Thus, at some point this evening (hopefully prior to 10 pm), I will post final predictions for the entire country, and I will be linking to election results (hell yes, prior to 10 EST) as I can get my hands on them.

British Columbia
Cariboo-Prince George Tory Tory
Kamloops-Thompson Tory Tory
Kelowna Tory Tory
Kootenay-Columbia Tory Tory
North Okanagan-Shuswap Tory Tory
Okanagan-Coquihalla Tory Tory
Prince George-Peace River Tory Tory
Skeena-Bulkley Valley NDP Too Close to Call
Southern Interior Tory NDP

Abbotsford Tory Tory
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon Tory Tory
Delta-Richmond East Tory Tory
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Too Close to Call
Langley Tory Tory
Newton-North Delta Tory Too Close to Call
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Too Close to Call
Richmond Liberal Liberal
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale Tory Tory
Surrey North Independent Judgment reserved--TCTC

Burnaby-Douglas NDP NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP Too Close to Call
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory Judgment reserved--TCTC
North Vancouver Liberal Liberal
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam Tory Tory
Vancouver Centre Liberal Liberal
Vancouver East NDP NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal Too Close to Call
Vancouver Quadra Liberal Liberal
Vancouver South Liberal Liberal
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast Tory Too Close to Call

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca Liberal Too Close to Call
Nanaimo-Alberni Tory Tory
Nanaimo-Cowichan NDP NDP
Saanich-Gulf Islands Tory Tory
Vancouver Island North Tory NDP
Victoria Liberal Too Close to Call

Quebec, minus Montreal
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Bloc Bloc
Haute-Gaspesie-Matapedia-Matane Bloc Bloc
Levis-Bellechasse Bloc Tory
Rimouski-Temiscouata Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny Bloc Bloc

Charlevoic-Montmorency Bloc Bloc
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Bloc Bloc
Jonquiere-Alma Bloc Bloc
Manicouagan Bloc Bloc
Roberval Bloc Bloc

Beauport Bloc Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Too Close to Call
Louis-Hebert Bloc Judgment reserved--TCTC
Louis-Saint-Laurent Bloc Tory
Quebec Bloc Bloc

Berthier-Maskinoge Bloc Bloc
Joliette Bloc Bloc
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere Bloc Tory
Montcalm Bloc Bloc
Portneuf Bloc Independent
Reprentigny Bloc Bloc
Richlieu Bloc Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain Bloc Bloc
Trois-Rivieres Bloc Bloc

Beauce Liberal Tory
Brome-Missisquoi Liberal Bloc
Compton-Stanstead Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Too Close to Call
Megantic-L’Erable Bloc Bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska Bloc Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot Bloc Bloc
Shefford Bloc Bloc
Sherbrooke Bloc Bloc

Beauharnois-Salaberry Bloc Bloc
Brossard-La Prairie Liberal Bloc
Chambly-Borduas Bloc Bloc
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant Bloc Bloc
Longueuil Bloc Bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert Bloc Bloc
Saint-Jean Bloc Bloc
Saint-Lambert Bloc Bloc
Vadreuil-Soulanges Bloc Bloc
Vercheres-Les-Patriotes Bloc Bloc

Abitibi-Temiscamingue Bloc Bloc
Argenteuil-Mirabel Bloc Bloc
Gatineau Liberal Bloc
Hull-Aylmer Bloc Bloc
Laurentides-Labelle Bloc Bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou Bloc Bloc
Pontiac Bloc Tory
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Nord Bloc Bloc
Terrebonne-Blainville Bloc Bloc

Metro Montreal
Hochelaga Bloc Bloc
Honore-Mercier Liberal Liberal
La Pointe-de-I’lle Bloc Bloc
Laurier Bloc Bloc
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie Bloc Bloc

Jeanne-Le Ber Liberal Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal Judgment Reserved--TCTC
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Too Close to Call
Mount Royal Liberal Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Outremont Liberal NDP
Pierrefonds-Dollard Liberal Too Close to Call
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville-Marie Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC

Ahuntsic Liberal Bloc
Alfred-Pellan Bloc Bloc
Bourassa Liberal Bloc
Laval Bloc Bloc
Laval--Les Illes Liberal Bloc
Marc-Aurele-Fortin Bloc Bloc
Papineau Liberal Bloc
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel Liberal Liberal

North and East Ontario
Carleton-Mississippi Mills Tory Tory
Nepean-Carleton Tory Tory
Ottawa Centre NDP NDP
Ottawa-Orleans Liberal Tory
Ottawa South Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ottawa-Vanier Liberal Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean Liberal Tory

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Too Close to Call
Kingston and the Islands Liberal Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Tory Tory
Leeds-Grenville Tory Tory
Prince Edward-Hastings Tory Tory
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Tory Tory
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Tory Tory

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal Too Close to Call
Kenora Liberal Too Close to Call
Nickel Belt Liberal Too Close to Call
Nipissing-Timiskaming Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Parry Sound-Muskoka Liberal Tory
Sault Ste. Marie NDP NDP
Sudbury Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal Too Close to Call
Timmins-James Bay NDP NDP

South and West Ontario
Brant Liberal Tory
Cambridge Tory Tory
Guelph Liberal Liberal
Haldimand-Norfolk Tory Tory
Huron-Bruce Liberal Liberal
Kitchener Centre Liberal Liberal
Kitchener-Conestoga Liberal Tory
Kitchener-Waterloo Liberal Liberal
Oxford Tory Tory
Perth-Wellington Tory Tory
Wellington-Halton Hills Tory Tory

Chatham-Kent-Essex Liberal Tory
Elgin-Middlesex-London Tory Tory
Essex Tory Tory
London-Fanshawe (Pat O'Brien) Too Close to Call
London North Centre Liberal Too Close to Call
London West Liberal Too Close to Call
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Too Close to Call
Windsor-Tecumseh NDP NDP
Windsor West NDP NDP

Greater Toronto Area
Barrie Liberal Tory
Dufferin-Caledon Tory Tory
Durham Tory Tory
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Tory Tory
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock Tory Tory
Newmarket-Aurora Liberal Tory
Northumberland-Quinte West Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Too Close to Call
Simcoe-Grey Tory Tory
Simcoe North Liberal Tory
York-Simcoe Tory Tory

Ajax-Pickering Liberal Too Close to Call
Markham-Unionville Liberal Liberal
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Too Close to Call
Oshawa Tory Tory
Pickering-Scarborough East Liberal Liberal
Richmond Hill Liberal Liberal
Thornhill Liberal Liberal
Vaughan Liberal Liberal
Whitby-Oshawa Liberal Tory

Beaches-East York Liberal Too Close to Call
Davenport Liberal Too Close to Call
Don Valley West Liberal Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Liberal
Parkdale-High Park Liberal Too Close to Call
St. Paul’s Liberal Liberal
Toronto Centre Liberal Liberal
Toronto-Danforth Liberal NDP
Trinity-Spadina Liberal NDP
York South-Weston Liberal Liberal

Don Valley East Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke Centre Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Etobicoke North Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Centre Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Liberal Liberal
Willowdale Liberal Liberal
York Centre Liberal Liberal
York West Liberal Liberal

Bramalea-Gore-Malton Liberal Liberal
Brampton-Springdale Liberal Liberal
Brampton West Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Mississauga-Brampton South Liberal Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville Liberal Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale (Carolyn Parrish) Too Close to Call
Mississauga South Liberal Too Close to Call
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Too Close to Call
Oakville Liberal Too Close to Call

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Liberal Tory
Burlington Liberal Tory
Halton Liberal Tory
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Liberal NDP
Hamilton Mountain Liberal Too Close to Call
Niagara Falls Tory Tory
Niagara West-Glanbrook Tory Tory
St. Catharines Liberal Tory
Welland Liberal Too Close to Call

And there you have it, folks, my initial set of predictions.
For BC/QC/ON, there are...
60 Tories, for an initial sum total of 115
55 Bloc
40 Liberals, for an initial sum total of 58
16 NDP, for an initial sum total of 22
1 Independent
The remaining 57 seats are too close to call: 11 in BC, 8 in QC, 27 in ON.
There is still a chance that the Bloc is the official opposition; they, however, would likely need at least 7 of the remaining Quebec seats for a shot at that. Conservatives would need 40 of the 57 for a majority of 155; problem is, those 40 likely have to come in the fifty seats remaining outside of Montreal, where a Tory MP would be shocking, to say the least.

Initial Calls for PEI, NB, NS, NL, MB, SK, AB, YT, NT, NU

2006-01-21T22:40:00.000-05:00

Here are my calls for Atlantic Canada, the West minus British Columbia, and the territories. These picks account for my initial calls (more certain) in 91 ridings...but, no, actually 88. Explanation later.

I will follow up with initial calls for BC, Quebec, and Ontario later this evening or early tomorrow morning.

When I make an initial call, I mean that I believe, on the basis of a two-poll consensus, that a party will take a seat.

The secondary calls that I make tomorrow afternoon are in seats in which the polls don't agree, and a few other seats the prediction for which I am reserving on the grounds of editorial judgment. I have marked these seats as Too Close to Call. For the seven provinces and two territories I am posting right now, I reserve editorial judgment on Cardigan in PEI, Malpeque in PEI, and Wascana in SK. I also reserve judgment to the second round of calls in Surrey North and Southern Interior in BC, but that's later. Now to the good part.
Province is in bold, riding is on the left, incumbent party, projection.

Manitoba
Brandon-Souris Tory Tory
Churchill NDP NDP
Dauphin-Swan River Tory Tory
Portage-Lisgar Tory Tory
Provencher Tory Tory
Selkirk-Interlake Tory Tory

Charleswood-St. James Tory Tory
Elmwood-Transcona NDP NDP
Kildonan-St. Paul Tory Tory
Saint Boniface Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg Centre NDP NDP
Winnipeg North NDP NDP
Winnipeg South Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre Liberal Liberal

Saskatchewan
Cypress Hills-Grasslands Tory Tory
Palliser Tory Too Close to Call
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre Tory Tory
Regina- Qu’Appelle Tory Too Close to Call
Souris-Moose Mountain Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Yorkton-Melville Tory Tory

Battlefords-Lloydminster Tory Tory
Blackstrap Tory Tory
Churchill River Tory Tory
Prince Albert Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Humboldt Tory Too Close to Call
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin Tory Tory

Alberta
Athabasca Tory Tory
Crowfoot Tory Tory
Lethbridge Tory Tory
Macleod Tory Tory
Medicine Hat Tory Tory
Peace River Tory Tory
Red Deer Tory Tory
Vegreville-Wainwright Tory Tory
Westlock-St. Paul Tory Tory
Wetaskiwin Tory Tory

Edmonton-Beaumont Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton Centre Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton East Tory Tory
Edmonton-Leduc Tory Tory
Edmonton-St. Albert Tory Tory
Edmonton-Sherwood Park Tory Tory
Edmonton-Spruce Grove Tory Tory
Edmonton-Strathcona Tory Tory

Calgary East Tory Tory
Calgary North Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Northeast Tory Tory
Calgary-Nose Hill Tory Tory
Calgary South Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Southeast Tory Tory
Calgary Southwest Tory Tory
Calgary West Tory Tory

Territories
Yukon Liberal Liberal
Western Arctic Liberal Too Close to Call
Nunavut Liberal Liberal

Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon Liberal Liberal
Bonavista-Exploits Liberal Tory
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte Liberal Liberal
Labrador Liberal Liberal
Random-Burin-St. George’s Liberal Too Close to Call
St. John’s North Tory Tory
St. John’s South Tory Tory

Prince Edward Island
Cardigan Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC
Charlottetown Liberal Liberal
Egmont Liberal Liberal
Malpeque Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton-Canso Liberal Liberal
Central Nova Tory Tory
Cumberland-Colchester Tory Tory
Dartmouth-Cole Harbor Liberal Too Close to Call
Halifax NDP NDP
Halifax West Liberal Liberal
Kings-Hants Liberal Liberal
Sackville-Eastern Shore NDP NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret’s Tory Tory
Sydney-Victoria Liberal Liberal
West Nova Liberal Tory

New Brunswick
Acadie-Bathurst NDP NDP
Beausejour Liberal Liberal
Fredericton Liberal Tory
Fundy Royal Tory Tory
Madawaska-Restigouche Liberal Liberal
Miramichi Liberal Liberal
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe Liberal Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest Tory Tory
Saint John Liberal Tory
Tobique-Mactaquac Liberal Tory

So, we end up with this:
55 Tories
18 Liberals
7 NDP
11 Too Close to Call
91 ridings total in PEI/NL/NS/NB/MB/SK/AB, plus the Yukon, Western Arctic, and Nunavut.

BC/ON/QC to follow.
The 11 listed as being TCTC here, plus whatever I list as TCTC in the next post or two, will be included on the secondary report sometime Sunday afternoon/night. Chances are good that I will look at the CPAC-SES poll on Sunday before I predict the 11+ seats.

Ok...

2006-01-21T17:01:00.000-05:00

After a minor crisis last night in which I thought myself to be a Canadian criminal, I have returned and do intend to post about the Canadian election using my program.

Here's how I'm going to do this.

Later tonight, I'm going to use a combination of SES and Ipsos polling data to predict as many seats as I can, in which both polls agree. I will list the province, riding, current party affiliation and predicted next party affiliation.

Then, tomorrow, likely in the mid-afternoon, I will post data for however many ridings remain, and the two will serve as my projection of the 2006 Canadian election.

Ready for PM Harper...?

2005-11-28T20:13:00.000-05:00

By a vote of 171-133, the Tories, the Bloc, and the NDP threw out the minority government of Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin.

Truly, res bonae

2005-11-16T20:25:00.000-05:00

Great news on a front near and dear to my heart.

*title--res bonae=good things*

I know...

2005-11-07T18:45:00.000-05:00

perfectly well that I have been bad about blogging in the recent past. That said, I'm back, at least for a night.

First order of business is the absolutely hilarious joke over at The Bully Pulpit . It's about Jesus and the Republican, Libertarian, and Democrat. Enjoy.

Second are a series of endorsements as to tomorrow
For Cleveland mayor: No candidate
For NYC mayor: No candidate
For Governor of New Jersey: Douglas Forrester
For Governor of Virginia: Jerry W. Kilgore
For SHBOE: F. Drexel Feeling
For Shaker Council: Gleisser, Ruffner, Zimmerman
Ohio Issues:
Issue 1: YES
Issue 2: NO
Issue 3: NO
Issue 4: NO
Issue 5: NO
County Issues:
Issue 6: YES
Issue 7: NO
California Issue 73: YES

Thirdly, my predictions on the races and other items noted above:
Cleveland Mayor: Jackson, 51-49
NYC Mayor: Bloomberg, 70-30
NJ Gov: Corzine, 52-48
VA Gov: Kilgore 51-47-2
SHBOE: Bliss, Feeling, Sutherland (3 seats, 3 people running)
Shaker Council: George, Gleisser, Zimmerman
Ohio Issues
YES: 1, 2
NO: 3, 4, 5
County Issues:
YES: 6, 7
NO: ------
California Issue 73: YES

Plaudits...

2005-10-20T16:32:00.000-04:00

to the good Senator from Oklahoma. Vote for the amendments, you craven scum!

first one (about the stuff in Westerly, the one I linked to) was defeated 86-13(Kyl, McCain, Allen, Coburn, Feingold, other usual suspects...)

Craven #$%^&...

Da Sawx

2005-10-07T19:42:00.000-04:00

Whatever Bill Kristol said about the ~~disgraceful joke~~ nomination of Harriet Miers, that's me right now.

Yeesh. 14-2. Then they blow a 4-zip lead. Then a game they beat themselves in, and blew every chance imaginable. Yeesh.

YAZOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!

2005-10-07T17:09:00.000-04:00

Sorry. I'm not really John Randolph, this isn't 1806, and I'm not running through the halls of Congress. But I'm really happy...

The Nomination of Harriet Miers

2005-10-03T15:28:00.000-04:00

Everyone who reads this blog on any sort of regular basis knows that I am a deeply conservative, Republican who tends more towards support for rather than opposition towards the President. I'm listed in the conservative blog section on dMoz; heck, I edit it.

That said...(and I know this is not exactly a first...)

I oppose the nomination of Harriet Miers to the United States Supreme Court.
She has no judicial experience, the nomination smells bad re: how close she's been to Bush on a personal level, we have no indication at ALL of her politics, I've seen everything from support of the ICC to rumors she's a lesbian to claims she gave money to the DNC, Gore '88, and Lloyd Bentsen.
Bush has become tone-deaf to his base; Republicans got elected in 2004, especially in South Dakota, because people want to see decent court nominees. Harriet Miers is not one of them. I'd have no qualms about seeing her nominated to a District Court judgeship; for the Supreme Court, I sincerely believe you need either judicial experience or a paper trial in academia as long as my arm.
I'm with the editors on RedState on this one.
Immediately, this nomination needs to be withdrawn, and Miers needs to be replaced with someone like an Alito, a Luttig, an Owen, or for the love of God, someone who's put on black robes as something other than a Halloween costume.

I want, as do a fair majority of my fellow conservatives, conservative judges with histories on the bench of being fair, impartial, and textualist. Roberts was tolerable; he clearly had a strong intellectual record, he's served on the Circuit Court in D.C., he was a clerk for Rehnquist, argued 39 cases before the Supreme Court, etc.
She's got nothing.

I call on the Senators of both parties to promptly give an up-or-down vote on this nominee, and to perform your constitutional duty to advise this President to nominate decent judges.
He's not a fiscal conservative. He's endorsed Chafee and Specter over more conservative opponents, opponents who would far more reliably support him in the Senate. And finally, he's nominated a god-awful candidate for the O'Connor seat.

Wake up, Mr. President. Wake up.

Sure....

2005-10-01T10:26:00.000-04:00

"History has eloquently proved that socialism with Chinese characteristics, a road that we have been following all along, is the only right path that leads us forward," said Wen, whose speech was punctuated frequently by applause.

ARE YOU KIDDING ME????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Ummm...

2005-09-30T16:12:00.000-04:00

So? What's the issue? It's true. Blacks commit crime at a rate of greatly increased proportion to their population as a percent of the whole.

Read the "he went on to say" part. It's pretty critical.

Good for him

2005-09-29T20:21:00.000-04:00

Plaudits to the Governator for this move.
In the light of what I posted about earlier, this is a good move.

Gay Marriage

2005-09-29T16:18:00.000-04:00

Folks, I'm not anti-gay, homophobic, or anything else.
As to this issue, I'm anti two things.
One: calling it marriage. Marriage is a sacred institution that's been around for thousands of years. No need to play.
Two: this.

Who says there's no slippery slope?

Roberts Vote

2005-09-29T15:22:00.000-04:00

Crow on Chafee, right on Rockefeller and Akaka. I figured that which ever way the first Hawaiian went, the second one would go as well.

Surprised about Chafee. Maybe Rove extorted the vote in exchange for re-elect support?

Two more

2005-09-28T21:48:00.000-04:00

Jeffords aye, Inouye no

If Chafee's an aye, it's 77-21, Akaka and Rockefeller unknown
If Chafee switches against the thinking, it's 76-22 with Akaka and Rockefeller unknowns.

O'Connor nomination thought to be coming Friday.

These people....

2005-09-28T20:00:00.000-04:00

...offend me.

Come on, folks! Satis, satis est.

Wednesday night update

2005-09-28T19:19:00.000-04:00

Well, I'd like to some credit and eat (some more) crow.
Carper and Lincoln, as I said, will vote aye.
Murray will also vote aye, against my guess, bringing my total to a fantastic 2 out of 5, 4 remaining.

Sooo.
Approximate tallies:
55-0-0
+ 21-20-3 (Akaka, Inouye (HI), Rockefeller (WV))
+ 0-0-1 (Jeffords (VT))
= 76-20-4

My guess is that all but Rockefeller will vote against, as will Chafee.
Ergo...76-24 in favor.

Oh, I am good...

2005-09-28T16:36:00.000-04:00

Ego sum stultissimus.

Well, you don't want to come here for info on the Roberts confirmation vote.

Here's the update from the prior post (Whip Counts):
Harkin (IA) is voting Nay.
Wyden (OR) is voting Yea.

Now...according to Bully Pulpit--(but read him anyway)
55-0-0 (Rep)
18-20-6 (Dem)
0-0-1 (Ind)

My picks on this are thusly altered:
I predict that Carper, Lincoln, and Rockefeller will vote for; Akaka, Inouye and Murray against, leaving the Dems at 21-23 (w/o the traitor).
Jeffords will still not vote to confirm.
I think Linc Chafee's going to end up voting against Roberts, putting Republicans at 54-1.

Numbers are still 75-25, with 21 Democrats joining 54 Republicans against the remaining 23 Democrats, the other Republican, and the independent.

More later.

Whip Counts

2005-09-27T23:50:00.000-04:00

Hat tip to this guy...he says this, in short (read it, though.)

Rep: 55-0-0.
Dem :17-19-8
Ind: 0-0-1.

Unknown dems: Akaka, Carper, Harkin, Inouye, Lincoln, Murray, Rockefeller, Wyden
(+Jeffords)

My picks (it's nearing midnight, Wednesday morning)
Reps will vote 54-1 for confirmation, thus sealing it; Chafee's the no. It looks good in Rhody...
Dems will vote 21-24 against confirmation (the 21 is for it); the 17 listed on BullyPulpit + Carper, Harkin, Lincoln, and Rockefeller. Akaka/Inouye I think are moderately weak nays; stronger nays would be Murray and Wyden. (and Jeffords)

My comfort factor (in order) with those picks above (least to greatest, each):
Yeas in order of iffiness: Rockefeller, Harkin, Carper, Lincoln
Nays in order of iffiness: Inouye, Akaka, Wyden, Murray, Jeffords

...leaving a lovely 75-25 split.

Umm...

2005-09-26T22:40:00.000-04:00

Chicago, meet Pakistan. Pakistan, Chicago.

Yikes...

2005-09-26T10:53:00.000-04:00

Hat tip to RedState's Adam, over on the RedHot forum...

Oh, man...

2005-09-25T20:13:00.000-04:00

Satis, satis est. Satis dicit.

From redstate

2005-09-15T20:19:00.000-04:00

LA Times piece, so don't go shooting the messenger, please.

What thinketh we?

This gem...

2005-09-11T21:41:00.000-04:00

...from LGF.

Right. A sinister cabal of Jews and freemasons and the Worker's World Party, plus Winona LaDuke, Luke Skywalker, and the mayor of Kabul. Uh-huh. Does this conspiracy also include some rogue elements from the Outer Rim, Mr. Thompson?

Oh, my.

2005-09-10T09:37:00.000-04:00

Words simply cannot express the incredulity I feel at this. They just can't.

How 'bout winning an election?

2005-09-08T21:23:00.000-04:00

My eighth-grade history teacher once told us a story when we were on one of our many random topics in his class. He said that he had once debated the issue of making stuff "look like America" with a college professor once, and his college professor told him this (it's paraphrased): the guy was going to have heart surgery in a couple of months, and he, quite frankly, didn't want a team of surgeons that looked like America, he wanted the best team of surgeons he could get. We can apply these same lessons to the Supreme Court: Do we want the best set of nine judges in the country (or, at the very least, do we want to have that ideal in our selections), or do we want a group of people who "look like America."

Guess what? Clarence Thomas was picked because he made the Court look like America. Do I dislike the views of Clarence Thomas, and/or do I disagree with his style? Not really. I disagree with why the first Bush picked him.

And guess what--if we're going to make the court "look like America", why don't we make EVERYTHING, and I mean EVERYTHING, look like America. Is this going to be a series of straw-men? Perhaps. Am I fond tonight of asking rhetorical questions? Apparently.
Black people make up perhaps 12% of America; they have thus no complaint about being underrepresented on the Court, because 1/9 is 11%, and 11 is a lot closer to 12 than 22 (and do we really want halves of people, given some of the half-wits on the Court now (cough, Kennedy, cough)).
So...should we develop another Court-packing plan, and make sure the Court "looks like America?" Or should we all place more emphasis on looking like we have a brain and devote ourselves to getting rid of the nonsense that absolutely everything has to be a microcosm of American society? What's next, should we put MBAs and chemistry PhDs on the court, because it would "look like America?"

There are a few political concepts that really, truly annoy me, and all the stuff I write about tends to come down to these three things.
1)Everything has to "look like America."
2)Every culture is equally good and valid AND the hand-in-hand idea that there is no such thing as a fact or objective truth.
3)Black people (or pick your minority) deserve special treatment b/c past wrongs.

Aye-yae-yae.

2005-09-06T17:41:00.000-04:00

I can't stand people who race-bait like this...

But the choice has stirred anger among some readers and other critics, particularly in the black community. They have argued that "refugee" somehow implies that the displaced storm victims, many of whom have been black, are second-class citizens — or not even Americans.

"It is racist to call American citizens refugees," the Rev.
Jesse Jackson said, visiting the Houston Astrodome on Monday. Members of the
Congressional Black Caucus have expressed similar sentiments.

2005-09-06T15:29:00.000-04:00

politics1.com/ri.htm

Some humor, for a change

2005-09-06T15:28:00.000-04:00

This from the great folks over at the Center for Individual Freedom (which, shockingly, does not mean defending NAMBLA and the Nazis!)

Freeper Post

2005-09-05T20:02:00.000-04:00

I found this to be quite useful...

MEC

Bit of an update here--the claim that in twenty years (assuming Ami. Kyoto passage by the Gore Admin, because the hurricane was definitely Bush's fault), ocean waters drop .7 degrees centigrade...Guess what: for those of who use the Fahrenheit scale, listen to this. Every Celsius degree is 5/9 of a Fahrenheit degree. There was 92 degree water near Lake Pontchartrain and surrounding waters during the hurricane. In twenty years, the water would have dropped to...90.74 degrees. But that'd have been in 2021. So pro-rating it...we're about twenty percent into this hypothetical twenty years, and so the water drops to a temperature of... hey! 91.685 degrees. And so perhaps we end up with about 149.5 mph winds, not 150. Guess what: no president causes natural disasters. Except perhaps the king of Ethiopia, because his bloodline goes back to Solomon and the Queen of Sheba.

How genial of them...

2005-09-05T15:18:00.000-04:00

Wow. Wow. Wow. Just when I though the dKos types couldn't sink any lower...

Good pick

2005-09-05T11:30:00.000-04:00

No link in this one, just a couple of threads.

Do we give enough foreign aid? How does this relate to the American tax system?

Is John Roberts a good pick? Who would you select as O' Connor's replacement? Why is Chuck Schumer being a disingenuous and transparent political hack by suggesting that Bush wait a year so that he and Pelosi can try and scare the hell out of people into voting Democratic in 2006?

Two down...

2005-09-04T11:23:00.000-04:00

and but seven left.

RIP, Mr. Chief Justice.

Better late...

2005-09-02T23:32:00.000-04:00

... than never. But a link, because I want to. Title...

So, data please?

2005-09-02T16:23:00.000-04:00

So, how much French aid is pouring into New Orleans now? Korean? Chinese? German? Russian? Other-schmuck-governments-who-are-dependable-for-depending-on-us-but-saying-screw-you-rednecks-in-OUR-times-of-need?

Cheapness

2005-09-01T21:13:00.000-04:00

Oh, and brief update--this stuff, like John Roberts, the Howard Fineman seems to think is so $#%^& important, simply ain't that much of a deal now. Why is it that these scum seem to think this tragedy so ripe for exploitation for their own damn ends? Why? Why? They've got about as much sense as the big-screen TV idiot.

Because that's what's important--scoring cheap political points (anti-war, anti-Bush) in the midst of a tragedy. I don't believe in everyone shutting up whenever something sobering is going on (I don't believe everyone has to be utterly sober 24/7 just because we're in a war--I'd hope no one seriously believes this), but there are limits. People did a damn fine job for a few weeks of coming together and responding to the attack on 9/11 just four short years ago. But this stuff, like by Fineman and the Kos-sacks, is cheap and it's also bull. Vermont Nat'l Guard troops being in Iraq has no real effect on the LA pickup--what does is drugged-up, jackass young black guys in New Orleans firing at FEMA workers and stealing big-screen TVs, and preventing charity hospital rescue efforts because the convoy-drivers and aid workers are being fired at. Al Sharpton, who says that if we'd only given more money to his band of idiot race-baiting anti-Semites (for anyone, Mr. Parker, who doesn't believe THAT, please look at Crown Heights and Tawana Brawley), deserves nothing more than a muzzle; as does Keith Olbermann, who is using this tragedy as an important platform for...attacking Rush Limbaugh. Does this sound like a stream of consciousness? It should. Because I've been hearing nothing BUT this stuff for about four days now, because I have cousins from New Orleans currently living with me ad infinitum.

Oh, and not-so-confidential to idiots who couldn't evacuate and are now complaining about martial law, etc? Wow. The rescue workers who are trying to get people the-hell-out-of-Dodge are being shot at. Control these bunch of morons, and we'll be a lot better off. Call me a racist, call me an elitist, hell, call me anything short of fascist scum (or worse, a liberal :)) but guess what---it ain't the Orthodox Jews stealing big-screen TVs.

Please secede. Please.

2005-08-27T23:51:00.000-04:00

Please...

Why? Does anyone think that eating french fries and chips would be GOOD for you?

Score one for the home team

2005-08-27T13:17:00.000-04:00

Congrats to Erick over at RedState and those with brains in the Georgia legislature, as the Justice Department precleared a Georgia law requiring more stringent IDs at the polls.
Link in title.

Now, the rest of the story

2005-08-22T16:18:00.000-04:00

Now, here, we have a little more sense being made about the same issue...both links in the title.

Just a little follow-up: In Ohio, by law, all election boards in the 88 counties consist of 2 Dems and 2 Republicans; ergo, it is utterly comical to suggest that any board in the state would attempt to disenfranchise the voters of the county on either side.

Also--What's with not having photo ID? Why, oh why, would you NOT have photo ID? Don't most Americans DRIVE??????

My name is Al Sharpton...

2005-08-22T16:05:00.000-04:00

and I'd like to vote in the Republican primary.

I still don't understand what the big deal is about standardized identification--you are who you are or you are not.
There is something fundatmentally wrong with this picture.
It is not racism to do something that affects blacks more than whites; if it were, it would also be racist to take any action that affects any two groups differently, an utterly insane concept. Placing a premium on the enforcement of corporate crime affects balding, middle-aged white guys more than anyone else; this is not racism, it is the truth.
That black people tend not to carry ID (in Lousiana, not Georgia, the state where the law takes effect,) and that the law will now require more stringent ID, does not make the law anti-black, because it affects white guys without IDs too. The day there is a law that says only black people have to carry ID will be the day this complaint becomes legitimate.

Every burden that is alleged to be primarily placed on the backs of black people IS NOT EVIDENCE TO BE USED IN THE CAUSE OF TARRING-AND-FEATHERING WHITE PEOPLE WITH THE CHARGE OF RACISM.

The Blogroll and Sorta

2005-08-22T13:13:00.000-04:00

A note to all those who would visit this site, from either side of the "Big Ditch"

My blogroll is short; but it is very, very simple.
If you are a liberal, you want to visit the bottom two sites--Illiterate in Four Languages and Politics1.
If you are a conservative, you want to visit anything else--Ann Coulter, Hugh Hewitt, Southern Appeal, Volokh, Kaus, others.
I include the liberal sites as both a courtesy to others (Illiterate) and as a valuable political gossip site (Politics1) Both sites contain potentially lethal doses of moonbat syndrome; you have been warned.

How kind of them...

2005-08-22T13:10:00.000-04:00

The title of this post, and of the article itself, says it all.

The Weather

2005-08-21T11:02:00.000-04:00

I'm bored with my APUSH stuff, so in my five minute break...My weather widget says that this week (Sun-Fri), the temps. will range from 70-80 and the lows from 58-64. Beautiful!

Some RedState brilliance

2005-08-19T13:35:00.000-04:00

This from Nick Danger over at RedState regarding someone's brilliance that all taxpaying citizens have a "right" to meet with the President.

I did the math on this. It's kind of a dumb idea.

There are roughly 200 million adults in the United States. If we each get a five-minute meeting with the President, that's one billion minutes the President has to spend in these meetings.

Dividing by 60, we get 16.6 million hours. Figuring 12-hour days, that's 1.3 million workdays that the President has to spend in these meetings.

If he does that 365 days a year, it will take a President 3,800 years to hold a 5-minute meeting with each adult.

Assuming that only 1% of the people would actually want these meetings, we're down to a mere 38 years of non-stop 12-hour days of meetings.

Leaving aside the question of the two-term limit, this still seems impractical.

It's a wonderful appeal to Stupid People™ though, so I can see why certain partisans would advocate such meetings. To those who can't or won't think, it probably sounds totally reasonable that the President should meet with anyone who wants a meeting.

What the...

2005-08-18T20:37:00.000-04:00

What the heck? She just walked right up and stabbed the guy? Yikes...

Kit Kat

2005-08-18T18:57:00.000-04:00

Give me a break...link in the title.

Is NOTHING good enough for these people? I agree with Netaniyahu.

The New Like

2005-08-18T16:49:00.000-04:00

A Yahoo! story about Kanye West...does the man know no other words besides "just"?

Please...the point of the article aside, the man has no command of the English language. Shock, shock.

Link above.

Nota Bene--This post is linguistic, not political, in nature.

More brilliance

2005-08-18T16:12:00.000-04:00

More ingenuity from media darling Cindy Sheehan...link in the title.

Also, read Ann Coulter's latest piece on Cindy Sheehan (it's sourced in the top link, too.)

Have you no shame, Governor?

2005-08-17T20:47:00.000-04:00

Everyone here knows that I'm among the most ardently conservative Republicans there is. This said...

I hereby call for the resignation of the Governor of Ohio, forthwith. The man, who clearly has no backbone whatsoever, would do well to at least have the decency to back out so that his party does not get COMPLETELY creamed in the '06 midterms and states.

Link with the title.

Mike Coleman's spot-on.

Give 'em an inch...

2005-08-17T20:26:00.000-04:00

...and they'll take the whole freakin' city.

What were the people of New London thinking when they elected the morons currently trying to destroy people for the sake of...what? Better yet, were they thinking?

Check out Reason Online for their take...

Absolutely insane videos...

2005-08-17T20:17:00.000-04:00

Thanks to Feddie and Erick for the scoop on the quite moonbat-worthy video linked to above.

People of the Phillippines...

2005-08-17T20:14:00.000-04:00

...I have returned. But I'm not MacArthur...really.

I'm going back to blogging now because I've discovered in the last ninety minutes just how fun it can be. Now...for why I'm really here.

First--to share two quotes, both courtesy (at least at an intermediate level) of nice folks at RedState.

"There is no Left. There is only right and wrong."
"History will be kind to me, for I intend to write it." Churchill (the second, obviously)

Second--to share two objectionable bits of news...which you'll have to read other posts to learn of.

I'm back

2005-08-07T16:54:00.000-04:00

And I intend to start posting again...maybe.

Breaking News

2005-07-01T14:16:00.000-04:00

Justice Sandra Day O'Connor has retired from the United States Supreme Court.

More later.

I promise...

2005-06-30T11:08:00.000-04:00

I truly, truly intend to actually update this blog, and to do say regularly. I also have a Dashboard widget as part of Mac OS X 10.4, with which I can update this.

A few items...
1) I applaud the Canadian Parliament for passing a gay marriage bill, not because I support the concept (I don't) but because they did it semi-democratically as opposed to through judicial fiat, as we have had in Massachusetts.
2)So, how many crooks do there have to be to completely eliminate the Democratic Party of Rhode Island? In the past two years, the former House Speaker, the former Senate President, and now former Senator Celona have been exposed as criminals are as having significant, undisclosed conflicts of interest, all of which have cost them their jobs. In a telling sign, the current Speaker has an approval rating in the state equal to that of the President, and the Senate President's approval is even less--to the tune of 17%. And yet they will be re-elected, as the voters of the state screw themselves again and again.
3)Not to mention the voters of the state of Ohio, who continue to elect Republicans who do nothing for the state and inflict damage upon it (Coingate.) Yet, just as the opposite is true in Rhode Island, the sheer lack of a functioning Democratic Party, one that embraces nutcases like Jerry Springer. Neither the Rhody Reps nor Ohio Dems will ever have power for the forseeable future, and the two states are the worse for it.
4)I support the flag-burning amendment precisely because I believe that the First Amendment currently protects it. As late as the early 60s, the Supreme Court was not prepared to protect to pornography, which means that the comical First Amendment absolutism that has now entered our jurisprudence was not always so. Forty years ago, this amendment would not have been necessary; today, with a jurisprudence that protects NAMBLA but not anti-abortion protesters, and flag-burners but not Christianity in public, we need an amendment that forcibly restores sanity to the jurisprudence of the First Amendment. Of course, then Ginsburg will say that burning the flag doesn't desecrate it.
So maybe we just need an anti-aging hippie amendment.