Second part of the second set
Bizarre SES poll...apparently, they careen left on Sunday. Huh.
Anyway:
Cardigan Liberal Tory
Malpeque Liberal Liberal
Random-Burin-St. George's Liberal NDP
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour Liberal NDP
Louis-Hebert Bloc Bloc
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Bloc Note: If correct, this signals the defeat of Paul Martin.
Notre-Dame Grace-Lachine Liberal Liberal
Pierrefonds Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville Marie Liberal Liberal
Regina Qu'Apelle Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Liberal
Edmonton Centre Liberal Tory
With just Ontario and British Columbia to finish up, we now have:
Tories 122
Liberals 64
Bloc 59
NDP 26
1 Independent
36 seats left TCTC
Skeena Bulkley Valley NDP NDP
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Tory
Newton North Delta Tory NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP NDP
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal NDP
West Vancouver Sea to Sky Country Tory Tory
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca Liberal NDP
Victoria Liberal NDP
Ottawa South Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal NDP
Kenora Liberal NDP
Nickel Belt Liberal NDP
Nipissing-Tamiskaming Liberal Tory
Sudbury Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal NDP
London Fanshawe (O'Brien) NDP
London North Centre Liberal Liberal
London West Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Tory
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal NDP
Davenport Liberal NDP
Parkdale-High Park Liberal NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Tory
Brampton West Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Erindale (Parrish) Tory
Mississauga-South Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Tory
Oakville Liberal Tory
Hamilton Mountain Liberal NDP
Welland Liberal NDP
Conservative Party 138
Liberal Party 65
Bloc Quebecois 59
New Democrats 45
1 Independent
Most Likely Scenario: Conservative minority government
Conservatives would need an extra 17 seats to form a majority government.
Now, that's my "scientific" pick.
My "feel" pick:
Conservative Party 152
Bloc Quebecois 62
Liberal Party 58
New Democrats 38
No Independents
Twenty hours 'til the polls close...let's go, Tories.
Anyway:
Cardigan Liberal Tory
Malpeque Liberal Liberal
Random-Burin-St. George's Liberal NDP
Dartmouth-Cole Harbour Liberal NDP
Louis-Hebert Bloc Bloc
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Bloc Note: If correct, this signals the defeat of Paul Martin.
Notre-Dame Grace-Lachine Liberal Liberal
Pierrefonds Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville Marie Liberal Liberal
Regina Qu'Apelle Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Liberal
Edmonton Centre Liberal Tory
With just Ontario and British Columbia to finish up, we now have:
Tories 122
Liberals 64
Bloc 59
NDP 26
1 Independent
36 seats left TCTC
Skeena Bulkley Valley NDP NDP
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Tory
Newton North Delta Tory NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP NDP
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal NDP
West Vancouver Sea to Sky Country Tory Tory
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca Liberal NDP
Victoria Liberal NDP
Ottawa South Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal NDP
Kenora Liberal NDP
Nickel Belt Liberal NDP
Nipissing-Tamiskaming Liberal Tory
Sudbury Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal NDP
London Fanshawe (O'Brien) NDP
London North Centre Liberal Liberal
London West Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Tory
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal NDP
Davenport Liberal NDP
Parkdale-High Park Liberal NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Tory
Brampton West Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Erindale (Parrish) Tory
Mississauga-South Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Tory
Oakville Liberal Tory
Hamilton Mountain Liberal NDP
Welland Liberal NDP
Conservative Party 138
Liberal Party 65
Bloc Quebecois 59
New Democrats 45
1 Independent
Most Likely Scenario: Conservative minority government
Conservatives would need an extra 17 seats to form a majority government.
Now, that's my "scientific" pick.
My "feel" pick:
Conservative Party 152
Bloc Quebecois 62
Liberal Party 58
New Democrats 38
No Independents
Twenty hours 'til the polls close...let's go, Tories.
posted by The Elephant @ 11:00 PM
2 Comments:
At 10:42 AM,
dave said…
I fail to understand the qualitative difference between your "scientific" pick and your "feel" pick. Clearly the scientific pick is based upon your personal built-in assumptions for the calculations in your algorithms. They weren't pulled out of the ether by an independent silicon consciousness.
So what's the difference, exactly? That you can more egregiously thumbscale the "feel" picks with your own biases??
(Just asking!)
At 5:01 PM,
The Elephant said…
My scientific pick and the last pick I posted use, as much as is possible, actual polling data from the last two polls done in the campaign. The feel pick is more my sense of the momentum (and a reflection of my hopes...)
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