Caveat Suffragator

Saturday, January 21, 2006

Initial Calls for PEI, NB, NS, NL, MB, SK, AB, YT, NT, NU

Here are my calls for Atlantic Canada, the West minus British Columbia, and the territories. These picks account for my initial calls (more certain) in 91 ridings...but, no, actually 88. Explanation later.

I will follow up with initial calls for BC, Quebec, and Ontario later this evening or early tomorrow morning.

When I make an initial call, I mean that I believe, on the basis of a two-poll consensus, that a party will take a seat.

The secondary calls that I make tomorrow afternoon are in seats in which the polls don't agree, and a few other seats the prediction for which I am reserving on the grounds of editorial judgment. I have marked these seats as Too Close to Call. For the seven provinces and two territories I am posting right now, I reserve editorial judgment on Cardigan in PEI, Malpeque in PEI, and Wascana in SK. I also reserve judgment to the second round of calls in Surrey North and Southern Interior in BC, but that's later. Now to the good part.
Province is in bold, riding is on the left, incumbent party, projection.

Manitoba
Brandon-Souris Tory Tory
Churchill NDP NDP
Dauphin-Swan River Tory Tory
Portage-Lisgar Tory Tory
Provencher Tory Tory
Selkirk-Interlake Tory Tory

Charleswood-St. James Tory Tory
Elmwood-Transcona NDP NDP
Kildonan-St. Paul Tory Tory
Saint Boniface Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg Centre NDP NDP
Winnipeg North NDP NDP
Winnipeg South Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre Liberal Liberal

Saskatchewan
Cypress Hills-Grasslands Tory Tory
Palliser Tory Too Close to Call
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre Tory Tory
Regina- Qu’Appelle Tory Too Close to Call
Souris-Moose Mountain Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Yorkton-Melville Tory Tory

Battlefords-Lloydminster Tory Tory
Blackstrap Tory Tory
Churchill River Tory Tory
Prince Albert Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Humboldt Tory Too Close to Call
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin Tory Tory

Alberta
Athabasca Tory Tory
Crowfoot Tory Tory
Lethbridge Tory Tory
Macleod Tory Tory
Medicine Hat Tory Tory
Peace River Tory Tory
Red Deer Tory Tory
Vegreville-Wainwright Tory Tory
Westlock-St. Paul Tory Tory
Wetaskiwin Tory Tory

Edmonton-Beaumont Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton Centre Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton East Tory Tory
Edmonton-Leduc Tory Tory
Edmonton-St. Albert Tory Tory
Edmonton-Sherwood Park Tory Tory
Edmonton-Spruce Grove Tory Tory
Edmonton-Strathcona Tory Tory

Calgary East Tory Tory
Calgary North Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Northeast Tory Tory
Calgary-Nose Hill Tory Tory
Calgary South Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Southeast Tory Tory
Calgary Southwest Tory Tory
Calgary West Tory Tory

Territories
Yukon Liberal Liberal
Western Arctic Liberal Too Close to Call
Nunavut Liberal Liberal

Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon Liberal Liberal
Bonavista-Exploits Liberal Tory
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte Liberal Liberal
Labrador Liberal Liberal
Random-Burin-St. George’s Liberal Too Close to Call
St. John’s North Tory Tory
St. John’s South Tory Tory

Prince Edward Island
Cardigan Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC
Charlottetown Liberal Liberal
Egmont Liberal Liberal
Malpeque Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton-Canso Liberal Liberal
Central Nova Tory Tory
Cumberland-Colchester Tory Tory
Dartmouth-Cole Harbor Liberal Too Close to Call
Halifax NDP NDP
Halifax West Liberal Liberal
Kings-Hants Liberal Liberal
Sackville-Eastern Shore NDP NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret’s Tory Tory
Sydney-Victoria Liberal Liberal
West Nova Liberal Tory

New Brunswick
Acadie-Bathurst NDP NDP
Beausejour Liberal Liberal
Fredericton Liberal Tory
Fundy Royal Tory Tory
Madawaska-Restigouche Liberal Liberal
Miramichi Liberal Liberal
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe Liberal Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest Tory Tory
Saint John Liberal Tory
Tobique-Mactaquac Liberal Tory

So, we end up with this:
55 Tories
18 Liberals
7 NDP
11 Too Close to Call
91 ridings total in PEI/NL/NS/NB/MB/SK/AB, plus the Yukon, Western Arctic, and Nunavut.

BC/ON/QC to follow.
The 11 listed as being TCTC here, plus whatever I list as TCTC in the next post or two, will be included on the secondary report sometime Sunday afternoon/night. Chances are good that I will look at the CPAC-SES poll on Sunday before I predict the 11+ seats.

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