BC, QC, ON
And here, my friends, are my initial calls for British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. There are 44 ridings listed as being Too Close to Call; I will post projections on that along with a final seat count sometime late tonight. I am reserving judgment on Skeena-Bulkley Valley in BC, New Westminster-Coquitlam in BC, Lac-Saint-Louis, Notre-Dame-Grace-Lachine, and Westmount-Ville-Marie in Montreal, Louis-Hebert in Quebec, Ottawa South in NE Ont, Nipissing-Tamiskaming in NE Ont, Etobicoke Lakeshore in the GTA and Brampton West.
Thus, at some point this evening (hopefully prior to 10 pm), I will post final predictions for the entire country, and I will be linking to election results (hell yes, prior to 10 EST) as I can get my hands on them.
British Columbia
Cariboo-Prince George Tory Tory
Kamloops-Thompson Tory Tory
Kelowna Tory Tory
Kootenay-Columbia Tory Tory
North Okanagan-Shuswap Tory Tory
Okanagan-Coquihalla Tory Tory
Prince George-Peace River Tory Tory
Skeena-Bulkley Valley NDP Too Close to Call
Southern Interior Tory NDP
Abbotsford Tory Tory
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon Tory Tory
Delta-Richmond East Tory Tory
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Too Close to Call
Langley Tory Tory
Newton-North Delta Tory Too Close to Call
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Too Close to Call
Richmond Liberal Liberal
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale Tory Tory
Surrey North Independent Judgment reserved--TCTC
Burnaby-Douglas NDP NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP Too Close to Call
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory Judgment reserved--TCTC
North Vancouver Liberal Liberal
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam Tory Tory
Vancouver Centre Liberal Liberal
Vancouver East NDP NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal Too Close to Call
Vancouver Quadra Liberal Liberal
Vancouver South Liberal Liberal
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast Tory Too Close to Call
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca Liberal Too Close to Call
Nanaimo-Alberni Tory Tory
Nanaimo-Cowichan NDP NDP
Saanich-Gulf Islands Tory Tory
Vancouver Island North Tory NDP
Victoria Liberal Too Close to Call
Quebec, minus Montreal
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Bloc Bloc
Haute-Gaspesie-Matapedia-Matane Bloc Bloc
Levis-Bellechasse Bloc Tory
Rimouski-Temiscouata Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny Bloc Bloc
Charlevoic-Montmorency Bloc Bloc
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Bloc Bloc
Jonquiere-Alma Bloc Bloc
Manicouagan Bloc Bloc
Roberval Bloc Bloc
Beauport Bloc Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Too Close to Call
Louis-Hebert Bloc Judgment reserved--TCTC
Louis-Saint-Laurent Bloc Tory
Quebec Bloc Bloc
Berthier-Maskinoge Bloc Bloc
Joliette Bloc Bloc
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere Bloc Tory
Montcalm Bloc Bloc
Portneuf Bloc Independent
Reprentigny Bloc Bloc
Richlieu Bloc Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain Bloc Bloc
Trois-Rivieres Bloc Bloc
Beauce Liberal Tory
Brome-Missisquoi Liberal Bloc
Compton-Stanstead Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Too Close to Call
Megantic-L’Erable Bloc Bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska Bloc Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot Bloc Bloc
Shefford Bloc Bloc
Sherbrooke Bloc Bloc
Beauharnois-Salaberry Bloc Bloc
Brossard-La Prairie Liberal Bloc
Chambly-Borduas Bloc Bloc
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant Bloc Bloc
Longueuil Bloc Bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert Bloc Bloc
Saint-Jean Bloc Bloc
Saint-Lambert Bloc Bloc
Vadreuil-Soulanges Bloc Bloc
Vercheres-Les-Patriotes Bloc Bloc
Abitibi-Temiscamingue Bloc Bloc
Argenteuil-Mirabel Bloc Bloc
Gatineau Liberal Bloc
Hull-Aylmer Bloc Bloc
Laurentides-Labelle Bloc Bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou Bloc Bloc
Pontiac Bloc Tory
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Nord Bloc Bloc
Terrebonne-Blainville Bloc Bloc
Metro Montreal
Hochelaga Bloc Bloc
Honore-Mercier Liberal Liberal
La Pointe-de-I’lle Bloc Bloc
Laurier Bloc Bloc
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie Bloc Bloc
Jeanne-Le Ber Liberal Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal Judgment Reserved--TCTC
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Too Close to Call
Mount Royal Liberal Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Outremont Liberal NDP
Pierrefonds-Dollard Liberal Too Close to Call
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville-Marie Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ahuntsic Liberal Bloc
Alfred-Pellan Bloc Bloc
Bourassa Liberal Bloc
Laval Bloc Bloc
Laval--Les Illes Liberal Bloc
Marc-Aurele-Fortin Bloc Bloc
Papineau Liberal Bloc
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel Liberal Liberal
North and East Ontario
Carleton-Mississippi Mills Tory Tory
Nepean-Carleton Tory Tory
Ottawa Centre NDP NDP
Ottawa-Orleans Liberal Tory
Ottawa South Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ottawa-Vanier Liberal Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Too Close to Call
Kingston and the Islands Liberal Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Tory Tory
Leeds-Grenville Tory Tory
Prince Edward-Hastings Tory Tory
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Tory Tory
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Tory Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal Too Close to Call
Kenora Liberal Too Close to Call
Nickel Belt Liberal Too Close to Call
Nipissing-Timiskaming Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Parry Sound-Muskoka Liberal Tory
Sault Ste. Marie NDP NDP
Sudbury Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal Too Close to Call
Timmins-James Bay NDP NDP
South and West Ontario
Brant Liberal Tory
Cambridge Tory Tory
Guelph Liberal Liberal
Haldimand-Norfolk Tory Tory
Huron-Bruce Liberal Liberal
Kitchener Centre Liberal Liberal
Kitchener-Conestoga Liberal Tory
Kitchener-Waterloo Liberal Liberal
Oxford Tory Tory
Perth-Wellington Tory Tory
Wellington-Halton Hills Tory Tory
Chatham-Kent-Essex Liberal Tory
Elgin-Middlesex-London Tory Tory
Essex Tory Tory
London-Fanshawe (Pat O'Brien) Too Close to Call
London North Centre Liberal Too Close to Call
London West Liberal Too Close to Call
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Too Close to Call
Windsor-Tecumseh NDP NDP
Windsor West NDP NDP
Greater Toronto Area
Barrie Liberal Tory
Dufferin-Caledon Tory Tory
Durham Tory Tory
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Tory Tory
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock Tory Tory
Newmarket-Aurora Liberal Tory
Northumberland-Quinte West Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Too Close to Call
Simcoe-Grey Tory Tory
Simcoe North Liberal Tory
York-Simcoe Tory Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Too Close to Call
Markham-Unionville Liberal Liberal
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Too Close to Call
Oshawa Tory Tory
Pickering-Scarborough East Liberal Liberal
Richmond Hill Liberal Liberal
Thornhill Liberal Liberal
Vaughan Liberal Liberal
Whitby-Oshawa Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal Too Close to Call
Davenport Liberal Too Close to Call
Don Valley West Liberal Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Liberal
Parkdale-High Park Liberal Too Close to Call
St. Paul’s Liberal Liberal
Toronto Centre Liberal Liberal
Toronto-Danforth Liberal NDP
Trinity-Spadina Liberal NDP
York South-Weston Liberal Liberal
Don Valley East Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke Centre Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Etobicoke North Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Centre Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Liberal Liberal
Willowdale Liberal Liberal
York Centre Liberal Liberal
York West Liberal Liberal
Bramalea-Gore-Malton Liberal Liberal
Brampton-Springdale Liberal Liberal
Brampton West Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Mississauga-Brampton South Liberal Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville Liberal Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale (Carolyn Parrish) Too Close to Call
Mississauga South Liberal Too Close to Call
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Too Close to Call
Oakville Liberal Too Close to Call
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Liberal Tory
Burlington Liberal Tory
Halton Liberal Tory
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Liberal NDP
Hamilton Mountain Liberal Too Close to Call
Niagara Falls Tory Tory
Niagara West-Glanbrook Tory Tory
St. Catharines Liberal Tory
Welland Liberal Too Close to Call
And there you have it, folks, my initial set of predictions.
For BC/QC/ON, there are...
60 Tories, for an initial sum total of 115
55 Bloc
40 Liberals, for an initial sum total of 58
16 NDP, for an initial sum total of 22
1 Independent
The remaining 57 seats are too close to call: 11 in BC, 8 in QC, 27 in ON.
There is still a chance that the Bloc is the official opposition; they, however, would likely need at least 7 of the remaining Quebec seats for a shot at that. Conservatives would need 40 of the 57 for a majority of 155; problem is, those 40 likely have to come in the fifty seats remaining outside of Montreal, where a Tory MP would be shocking, to say the least.
Thus, at some point this evening (hopefully prior to 10 pm), I will post final predictions for the entire country, and I will be linking to election results (hell yes, prior to 10 EST) as I can get my hands on them.
British Columbia
Cariboo-Prince George Tory Tory
Kamloops-Thompson Tory Tory
Kelowna Tory Tory
Kootenay-Columbia Tory Tory
North Okanagan-Shuswap Tory Tory
Okanagan-Coquihalla Tory Tory
Prince George-Peace River Tory Tory
Skeena-Bulkley Valley NDP Too Close to Call
Southern Interior Tory NDP
Abbotsford Tory Tory
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon Tory Tory
Delta-Richmond East Tory Tory
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Too Close to Call
Langley Tory Tory
Newton-North Delta Tory Too Close to Call
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Too Close to Call
Richmond Liberal Liberal
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale Tory Tory
Surrey North Independent Judgment reserved--TCTC
Burnaby-Douglas NDP NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP Too Close to Call
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory Judgment reserved--TCTC
North Vancouver Liberal Liberal
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam Tory Tory
Vancouver Centre Liberal Liberal
Vancouver East NDP NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal Too Close to Call
Vancouver Quadra Liberal Liberal
Vancouver South Liberal Liberal
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast Tory Too Close to Call
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca Liberal Too Close to Call
Nanaimo-Alberni Tory Tory
Nanaimo-Cowichan NDP NDP
Saanich-Gulf Islands Tory Tory
Vancouver Island North Tory NDP
Victoria Liberal Too Close to Call
Quebec, minus Montreal
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Bloc Bloc
Haute-Gaspesie-Matapedia-Matane Bloc Bloc
Levis-Bellechasse Bloc Tory
Rimouski-Temiscouata Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny Bloc Bloc
Charlevoic-Montmorency Bloc Bloc
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Bloc Bloc
Jonquiere-Alma Bloc Bloc
Manicouagan Bloc Bloc
Roberval Bloc Bloc
Beauport Bloc Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Too Close to Call
Louis-Hebert Bloc Judgment reserved--TCTC
Louis-Saint-Laurent Bloc Tory
Quebec Bloc Bloc
Berthier-Maskinoge Bloc Bloc
Joliette Bloc Bloc
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere Bloc Tory
Montcalm Bloc Bloc
Portneuf Bloc Independent
Reprentigny Bloc Bloc
Richlieu Bloc Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain Bloc Bloc
Trois-Rivieres Bloc Bloc
Beauce Liberal Tory
Brome-Missisquoi Liberal Bloc
Compton-Stanstead Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Too Close to Call
Megantic-L’Erable Bloc Bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska Bloc Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot Bloc Bloc
Shefford Bloc Bloc
Sherbrooke Bloc Bloc
Beauharnois-Salaberry Bloc Bloc
Brossard-La Prairie Liberal Bloc
Chambly-Borduas Bloc Bloc
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant Bloc Bloc
Longueuil Bloc Bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert Bloc Bloc
Saint-Jean Bloc Bloc
Saint-Lambert Bloc Bloc
Vadreuil-Soulanges Bloc Bloc
Vercheres-Les-Patriotes Bloc Bloc
Abitibi-Temiscamingue Bloc Bloc
Argenteuil-Mirabel Bloc Bloc
Gatineau Liberal Bloc
Hull-Aylmer Bloc Bloc
Laurentides-Labelle Bloc Bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou Bloc Bloc
Pontiac Bloc Tory
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Nord Bloc Bloc
Terrebonne-Blainville Bloc Bloc
Metro Montreal
Hochelaga Bloc Bloc
Honore-Mercier Liberal Liberal
La Pointe-de-I’lle Bloc Bloc
Laurier Bloc Bloc
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie Bloc Bloc
Jeanne-Le Ber Liberal Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal Judgment Reserved--TCTC
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Too Close to Call
Mount Royal Liberal Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Outremont Liberal NDP
Pierrefonds-Dollard Liberal Too Close to Call
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville-Marie Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ahuntsic Liberal Bloc
Alfred-Pellan Bloc Bloc
Bourassa Liberal Bloc
Laval Bloc Bloc
Laval--Les Illes Liberal Bloc
Marc-Aurele-Fortin Bloc Bloc
Papineau Liberal Bloc
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel Liberal Liberal
North and East Ontario
Carleton-Mississippi Mills Tory Tory
Nepean-Carleton Tory Tory
Ottawa Centre NDP NDP
Ottawa-Orleans Liberal Tory
Ottawa South Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ottawa-Vanier Liberal Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Too Close to Call
Kingston and the Islands Liberal Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Tory Tory
Leeds-Grenville Tory Tory
Prince Edward-Hastings Tory Tory
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Tory Tory
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Tory Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal Too Close to Call
Kenora Liberal Too Close to Call
Nickel Belt Liberal Too Close to Call
Nipissing-Timiskaming Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Parry Sound-Muskoka Liberal Tory
Sault Ste. Marie NDP NDP
Sudbury Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal Too Close to Call
Timmins-James Bay NDP NDP
South and West Ontario
Brant Liberal Tory
Cambridge Tory Tory
Guelph Liberal Liberal
Haldimand-Norfolk Tory Tory
Huron-Bruce Liberal Liberal
Kitchener Centre Liberal Liberal
Kitchener-Conestoga Liberal Tory
Kitchener-Waterloo Liberal Liberal
Oxford Tory Tory
Perth-Wellington Tory Tory
Wellington-Halton Hills Tory Tory
Chatham-Kent-Essex Liberal Tory
Elgin-Middlesex-London Tory Tory
Essex Tory Tory
London-Fanshawe (Pat O'Brien) Too Close to Call
London North Centre Liberal Too Close to Call
London West Liberal Too Close to Call
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Too Close to Call
Windsor-Tecumseh NDP NDP
Windsor West NDP NDP
Greater Toronto Area
Barrie Liberal Tory
Dufferin-Caledon Tory Tory
Durham Tory Tory
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Tory Tory
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock Tory Tory
Newmarket-Aurora Liberal Tory
Northumberland-Quinte West Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Too Close to Call
Simcoe-Grey Tory Tory
Simcoe North Liberal Tory
York-Simcoe Tory Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Too Close to Call
Markham-Unionville Liberal Liberal
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Too Close to Call
Oshawa Tory Tory
Pickering-Scarborough East Liberal Liberal
Richmond Hill Liberal Liberal
Thornhill Liberal Liberal
Vaughan Liberal Liberal
Whitby-Oshawa Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal Too Close to Call
Davenport Liberal Too Close to Call
Don Valley West Liberal Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Liberal
Parkdale-High Park Liberal Too Close to Call
St. Paul’s Liberal Liberal
Toronto Centre Liberal Liberal
Toronto-Danforth Liberal NDP
Trinity-Spadina Liberal NDP
York South-Weston Liberal Liberal
Don Valley East Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke Centre Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Etobicoke North Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Centre Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Liberal Liberal
Willowdale Liberal Liberal
York Centre Liberal Liberal
York West Liberal Liberal
Bramalea-Gore-Malton Liberal Liberal
Brampton-Springdale Liberal Liberal
Brampton West Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Mississauga-Brampton South Liberal Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville Liberal Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale (Carolyn Parrish) Too Close to Call
Mississauga South Liberal Too Close to Call
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Too Close to Call
Oakville Liberal Too Close to Call
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Liberal Tory
Burlington Liberal Tory
Halton Liberal Tory
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Liberal NDP
Hamilton Mountain Liberal Too Close to Call
Niagara Falls Tory Tory
Niagara West-Glanbrook Tory Tory
St. Catharines Liberal Tory
Welland Liberal Too Close to Call
And there you have it, folks, my initial set of predictions.
For BC/QC/ON, there are...
60 Tories, for an initial sum total of 115
55 Bloc
40 Liberals, for an initial sum total of 58
16 NDP, for an initial sum total of 22
1 Independent
The remaining 57 seats are too close to call: 11 in BC, 8 in QC, 27 in ON.
There is still a chance that the Bloc is the official opposition; they, however, would likely need at least 7 of the remaining Quebec seats for a shot at that. Conservatives would need 40 of the 57 for a majority of 155; problem is, those 40 likely have to come in the fifty seats remaining outside of Montreal, where a Tory MP would be shocking, to say the least.

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