Another pick

Well, I ran my program without any adjustments (save two) for a Strategic Counsel poll, and I ended up with:
131 Tories
73 Liberals
61 Bloc
42 NDP
1 Independent (Portneuf)
I adjusted Surrey North from Other to NDP and Portneuf from Tory to Independent.

I'll report on the veracity of all three predictions (/308 for the seat-by-seat; 'how far was it off' for the other two) on Tuesday.
Hopefully, I'll have a results report up when I get stuff; that will, with any luck, begin about two to three hours from now.

Second part of the second set

Bizarre SES poll...apparently, they careen left on Sunday. Huh.

Anyway:
Cardigan Liberal Tory
Malpeque Liberal Liberal

Random-Burin-St. George's Liberal NDP

Dartmouth-Cole Harbour Liberal NDP

Louis-Hebert Bloc Bloc

LaSalle-Emard Liberal Bloc Note: If correct, this signals the defeat of Paul Martin.
Notre-Dame Grace-Lachine Liberal Liberal
Pierrefonds Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville Marie Liberal Liberal

Regina Qu'Apelle Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Liberal

Edmonton Centre Liberal Tory

With just Ontario and British Columbia to finish up, we now have:
Tories 122
Liberals 64
Bloc 59
NDP 26
1 Independent
36 seats left TCTC

Skeena Bulkley Valley NDP NDP
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Tory
Newton North Delta Tory NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP NDP
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal NDP
West Vancouver Sea to Sky Country Tory Tory
Esquimault-Juan de Fuca Liberal NDP
Victoria Liberal NDP

Ottawa South Liberal Tory
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Tory
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal NDP
Kenora Liberal NDP
Nickel Belt Liberal NDP
Nipissing-Tamiskaming Liberal Tory
Sudbury Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal NDP

London Fanshawe (O'Brien) NDP
London North Centre Liberal Liberal
London West Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Tory

Peterborough Liberal Tory
Ajax-Pickering Liberal Tory
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Tory
Beaches-East York Liberal NDP
Davenport Liberal NDP
Parkdale-High Park Liberal NDP
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Tory
Brampton West Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Erindale (Parrish) Tory
Mississauga-South Liberal Tory
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Tory
Oakville Liberal Tory
Hamilton Mountain Liberal NDP
Welland Liberal NDP

Conservative Party 138
Liberal Party 65
Bloc Quebecois 59
New Democrats 45
1 Independent
Most Likely Scenario: Conservative minority government
Conservatives would need an extra 17 seats to form a majority government.

Now, that's my "scientific" pick.

My "feel" pick:
Conservative Party 152
Bloc Quebecois 62
Liberal Party 58
New Democrats 38
No Independents

Twenty hours 'til the polls close...let's go, Tories.

First bit of the second set

Calls I am now prepared to make:
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Tory
Surrey North (Cadman) NDP
Palliser Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Humboldt Tory Tory
Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont (Kilgour) Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Bloc
Lac St. Louis Liberal Liberal
Western Arctic Liberal NDP

OK...thus
119 Tories
57 Bloc
59 Liberals
24 NDP
1 Independent
48 seats Too Close to Call

BC, QC, ON

And here, my friends, are my initial calls for British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. There are 44 ridings listed as being Too Close to Call; I will post projections on that along with a final seat count sometime late tonight. I am reserving judgment on Skeena-Bulkley Valley in BC, New Westminster-Coquitlam in BC, Lac-Saint-Louis, Notre-Dame-Grace-Lachine, and Westmount-Ville-Marie in Montreal, Louis-Hebert in Quebec, Ottawa South in NE Ont, Nipissing-Tamiskaming in NE Ont, Etobicoke Lakeshore in the GTA and Brampton West.
Thus, at some point this evening (hopefully prior to 10 pm), I will post final predictions for the entire country, and I will be linking to election results (hell yes, prior to 10 EST) as I can get my hands on them.

British Columbia
Cariboo-Prince George Tory Tory
Kamloops-Thompson Tory Tory
Kelowna Tory Tory
Kootenay-Columbia Tory Tory
North Okanagan-Shuswap Tory Tory
Okanagan-Coquihalla Tory Tory
Prince George-Peace River Tory Tory
Skeena-Bulkley Valley NDP Too Close to Call
Southern Interior Tory NDP

Abbotsford Tory Tory
Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon Tory Tory
Delta-Richmond East Tory Tory
Fleetwood-Port Kells Tory Too Close to Call
Langley Tory Tory
Newton-North Delta Tory Too Close to Call
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge Tory Too Close to Call
Richmond Liberal Liberal
South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale Tory Tory
Surrey North Independent Judgment reserved--TCTC

Burnaby-Douglas NDP NDP
Burnaby-New Westminster NDP Too Close to Call
New Westminster-Coquitlam Tory Judgment reserved--TCTC
North Vancouver Liberal Liberal
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam Tory Tory
Vancouver Centre Liberal Liberal
Vancouver East NDP NDP
Vancouver Kingsway Liberal Too Close to Call
Vancouver Quadra Liberal Liberal
Vancouver South Liberal Liberal
West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast Tory Too Close to Call

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca Liberal Too Close to Call
Nanaimo-Alberni Tory Tory
Nanaimo-Cowichan NDP NDP
Saanich-Gulf Islands Tory Tory
Vancouver Island North Tory NDP
Victoria Liberal Too Close to Call

Quebec, minus Montreal
Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine Bloc Bloc
Haute-Gaspesie-Matapedia-Matane Bloc Bloc
Levis-Bellechasse Bloc Tory
Rimouski-Temiscouata Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Loup-Montmagny Bloc Bloc

Charlevoic-Montmorency Bloc Bloc
Chicoutimi-Le Fjord Bloc Bloc
Jonquiere-Alma Bloc Bloc
Manicouagan Bloc Bloc
Roberval Bloc Bloc

Beauport Bloc Tory
Charlesbourg Bloc Too Close to Call
Louis-Hebert Bloc Judgment reserved--TCTC
Louis-Saint-Laurent Bloc Tory
Quebec Bloc Bloc

Berthier-Maskinoge Bloc Bloc
Joliette Bloc Bloc
Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere Bloc Tory
Montcalm Bloc Bloc
Portneuf Bloc Independent
Reprentigny Bloc Bloc
Richlieu Bloc Bloc
Saint-Maurice-Champlain Bloc Bloc
Trois-Rivieres Bloc Bloc

Beauce Liberal Tory
Brome-Missisquoi Liberal Bloc
Compton-Stanstead Bloc Bloc
Drummond Bloc Too Close to Call
Megantic-L’Erable Bloc Bloc
Richmond-Arthabaska Bloc Bloc
Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot Bloc Bloc
Shefford Bloc Bloc
Sherbrooke Bloc Bloc

Beauharnois-Salaberry Bloc Bloc
Brossard-La Prairie Liberal Bloc
Chambly-Borduas Bloc Bloc
Chateauguay-Saint-Constant Bloc Bloc
Longueuil Bloc Bloc
Saint-Bruno-Saint-Hubert Bloc Bloc
Saint-Jean Bloc Bloc
Saint-Lambert Bloc Bloc
Vadreuil-Soulanges Bloc Bloc
Vercheres-Les-Patriotes Bloc Bloc

Abitibi-Temiscamingue Bloc Bloc
Argenteuil-Mirabel Bloc Bloc
Gatineau Liberal Bloc
Hull-Aylmer Bloc Bloc
Laurentides-Labelle Bloc Bloc
Nunavik-Eeyou Bloc Bloc
Pontiac Bloc Tory
Riviere-des-Mille-Iles Bloc Bloc
Riviere-du-Nord Bloc Bloc
Terrebonne-Blainville Bloc Bloc

Metro Montreal
Hochelaga Bloc Bloc
Honore-Mercier Liberal Liberal
La Pointe-de-I’lle Bloc Bloc
Laurier Bloc Bloc
Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie Bloc Bloc

Jeanne-Le Ber Liberal Bloc
Lac-Saint-Louis Liberal Judgment Reserved--TCTC
LaSalle-Emard Liberal Too Close to Call
Mount Royal Liberal Liberal
Notre-Dame-de-Grace-Lachine Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Outremont Liberal NDP
Pierrefonds-Dollard Liberal Too Close to Call
Saint-Laurent-Cartierville Liberal Liberal
Westmount-Ville-Marie Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC

Ahuntsic Liberal Bloc
Alfred-Pellan Bloc Bloc
Bourassa Liberal Bloc
Laval Bloc Bloc
Laval--Les Illes Liberal Bloc
Marc-Aurele-Fortin Bloc Bloc
Papineau Liberal Bloc
Saint-Leonard-Saint-Michel Liberal Liberal

North and East Ontario
Carleton-Mississippi Mills Tory Tory
Nepean-Carleton Tory Tory
Ottawa Centre NDP NDP
Ottawa-Orleans Liberal Tory
Ottawa South Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Ottawa-Vanier Liberal Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean Liberal Tory

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Liberal Too Close to Call
Kingston and the Islands Liberal Liberal
Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox and Addington Tory Tory
Leeds-Grenville Tory Tory
Prince Edward-Hastings Tory Tory
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Tory Tory
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Tory Tory

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasin Liberal Too Close to Call
Kenora Liberal Too Close to Call
Nickel Belt Liberal Too Close to Call
Nipissing-Timiskaming Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Parry Sound-Muskoka Liberal Tory
Sault Ste. Marie NDP NDP
Sudbury Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Rainy River Liberal Too Close to Call
Thunder Bay-Superior North Liberal Too Close to Call
Timmins-James Bay NDP NDP

South and West Ontario
Brant Liberal Tory
Cambridge Tory Tory
Guelph Liberal Liberal
Haldimand-Norfolk Tory Tory
Huron-Bruce Liberal Liberal
Kitchener Centre Liberal Liberal
Kitchener-Conestoga Liberal Tory
Kitchener-Waterloo Liberal Liberal
Oxford Tory Tory
Perth-Wellington Tory Tory
Wellington-Halton Hills Tory Tory

Chatham-Kent-Essex Liberal Tory
Elgin-Middlesex-London Tory Tory
Essex Tory Tory
London-Fanshawe (Pat O'Brien) Too Close to Call
London North Centre Liberal Too Close to Call
London West Liberal Too Close to Call
Middlesex-Kent-Lambton Liberal Tory
Sarnia-Lambton Liberal Too Close to Call
Windsor-Tecumseh NDP NDP
Windsor West NDP NDP

Greater Toronto Area
Barrie Liberal Tory
Dufferin-Caledon Tory Tory
Durham Tory Tory
Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound Tory Tory
Haliburton-Kawartha-Lakes-Brock Tory Tory
Newmarket-Aurora Liberal Tory
Northumberland-Quinte West Liberal Tory
Peterborough Liberal Too Close to Call
Simcoe-Grey Tory Tory
Simcoe North Liberal Tory
York-Simcoe Tory Tory

Ajax-Pickering Liberal Too Close to Call
Markham-Unionville Liberal Liberal
Oak Ridges-Markham Liberal Too Close to Call
Oshawa Tory Tory
Pickering-Scarborough East Liberal Liberal
Richmond Hill Liberal Liberal
Thornhill Liberal Liberal
Vaughan Liberal Liberal
Whitby-Oshawa Liberal Tory

Beaches-East York Liberal Too Close to Call
Davenport Liberal Too Close to Call
Don Valley West Liberal Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Liberal
Parkdale-High Park Liberal Too Close to Call
St. Paul’s Liberal Liberal
Toronto Centre Liberal Liberal
Toronto-Danforth Liberal NDP
Trinity-Spadina Liberal NDP
York South-Weston Liberal Liberal

Don Valley East Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke Centre Liberal Liberal
Etobicoke-Lakeshore Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Etobicoke North Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Agincourt Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Centre Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Guildwood Liberal Liberal
Scarborough-Rouge River Liberal Liberal
Scarborough Southwest Liberal Liberal
Willowdale Liberal Liberal
York Centre Liberal Liberal
York West Liberal Liberal

Bramalea-Gore-Malton Liberal Liberal
Brampton-Springdale Liberal Liberal
Brampton West Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Mississauga-Brampton South Liberal Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville Liberal Liberal
Mississauga-Erindale (Carolyn Parrish) Too Close to Call
Mississauga South Liberal Too Close to Call
Mississauga-Streetsville Liberal Too Close to Call
Oakville Liberal Too Close to Call

Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough Liberal Tory
Burlington Liberal Tory
Halton Liberal Tory
Hamilton Centre NDP NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Liberal NDP
Hamilton Mountain Liberal Too Close to Call
Niagara Falls Tory Tory
Niagara West-Glanbrook Tory Tory
St. Catharines Liberal Tory
Welland Liberal Too Close to Call

And there you have it, folks, my initial set of predictions.
For BC/QC/ON, there are...
60 Tories, for an initial sum total of 115
55 Bloc
40 Liberals, for an initial sum total of 58
16 NDP, for an initial sum total of 22
1 Independent
The remaining 57 seats are too close to call: 11 in BC, 8 in QC, 27 in ON.
There is still a chance that the Bloc is the official opposition; they, however, would likely need at least 7 of the remaining Quebec seats for a shot at that. Conservatives would need 40 of the 57 for a majority of 155; problem is, those 40 likely have to come in the fifty seats remaining outside of Montreal, where a Tory MP would be shocking, to say the least.

Initial Calls for PEI, NB, NS, NL, MB, SK, AB, YT, NT, NU

Here are my calls for Atlantic Canada, the West minus British Columbia, and the territories. These picks account for my initial calls (more certain) in 91 ridings...but, no, actually 88. Explanation later.

I will follow up with initial calls for BC, Quebec, and Ontario later this evening or early tomorrow morning.

When I make an initial call, I mean that I believe, on the basis of a two-poll consensus, that a party will take a seat.

The secondary calls that I make tomorrow afternoon are in seats in which the polls don't agree, and a few other seats the prediction for which I am reserving on the grounds of editorial judgment. I have marked these seats as Too Close to Call. For the seven provinces and two territories I am posting right now, I reserve editorial judgment on Cardigan in PEI, Malpeque in PEI, and Wascana in SK. I also reserve judgment to the second round of calls in Surrey North and Southern Interior in BC, but that's later. Now to the good part.
Province is in bold, riding is on the left, incumbent party, projection.

Manitoba
Brandon-Souris Tory Tory
Churchill NDP NDP
Dauphin-Swan River Tory Tory
Portage-Lisgar Tory Tory
Provencher Tory Tory
Selkirk-Interlake Tory Tory

Charleswood-St. James Tory Tory
Elmwood-Transcona NDP NDP
Kildonan-St. Paul Tory Tory
Saint Boniface Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg Centre NDP NDP
Winnipeg North NDP NDP
Winnipeg South Liberal Liberal
Winnipeg South Centre Liberal Liberal

Saskatchewan
Cypress Hills-Grasslands Tory Tory
Palliser Tory Too Close to Call
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre Tory Tory
Regina- Qu’Appelle Tory Too Close to Call
Souris-Moose Mountain Tory Tory
Wascana Liberal Judgment reserved--TCTC
Yorkton-Melville Tory Tory

Battlefords-Lloydminster Tory Tory
Blackstrap Tory Tory
Churchill River Tory Tory
Prince Albert Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Humboldt Tory Too Close to Call
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar Tory Tory
Saskatoon-Wanuskewin Tory Tory

Alberta
Athabasca Tory Tory
Crowfoot Tory Tory
Lethbridge Tory Tory
Macleod Tory Tory
Medicine Hat Tory Tory
Peace River Tory Tory
Red Deer Tory Tory
Vegreville-Wainwright Tory Tory
Westlock-St. Paul Tory Tory
Wetaskiwin Tory Tory

Edmonton-Beaumont Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton Centre Tory Too Close to Call
Edmonton East Tory Tory
Edmonton-Leduc Tory Tory
Edmonton-St. Albert Tory Tory
Edmonton-Sherwood Park Tory Tory
Edmonton-Spruce Grove Tory Tory
Edmonton-Strathcona Tory Tory

Calgary East Tory Tory
Calgary North Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Northeast Tory Tory
Calgary-Nose Hill Tory Tory
Calgary South Centre Tory Tory
Calgary Southeast Tory Tory
Calgary Southwest Tory Tory
Calgary West Tory Tory

Territories
Yukon Liberal Liberal
Western Arctic Liberal Too Close to Call
Nunavut Liberal Liberal

Newfoundland and Labrador
Avalon Liberal Liberal
Bonavista-Exploits Liberal Tory
Humber-St. Barbe-Baie Verte Liberal Liberal
Labrador Liberal Liberal
Random-Burin-St. George’s Liberal Too Close to Call
St. John’s North Tory Tory
St. John’s South Tory Tory

Prince Edward Island
Cardigan Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC
Charlottetown Liberal Liberal
Egmont Liberal Liberal
Malpeque Liberal Judgment reserved-TCTC

Nova Scotia
Cape Breton-Canso Liberal Liberal
Central Nova Tory Tory
Cumberland-Colchester Tory Tory
Dartmouth-Cole Harbor Liberal Too Close to Call
Halifax NDP NDP
Halifax West Liberal Liberal
Kings-Hants Liberal Liberal
Sackville-Eastern Shore NDP NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret’s Tory Tory
Sydney-Victoria Liberal Liberal
West Nova Liberal Tory

New Brunswick
Acadie-Bathurst NDP NDP
Beausejour Liberal Liberal
Fredericton Liberal Tory
Fundy Royal Tory Tory
Madawaska-Restigouche Liberal Liberal
Miramichi Liberal Liberal
Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe Liberal Liberal
New Brunswick Southwest Tory Tory
Saint John Liberal Tory
Tobique-Mactaquac Liberal Tory

So, we end up with this:
55 Tories
18 Liberals
7 NDP
11 Too Close to Call
91 ridings total in PEI/NL/NS/NB/MB/SK/AB, plus the Yukon, Western Arctic, and Nunavut.

BC/ON/QC to follow.
The 11 listed as being TCTC here, plus whatever I list as TCTC in the next post or two, will be included on the secondary report sometime Sunday afternoon/night. Chances are good that I will look at the CPAC-SES poll on Sunday before I predict the 11+ seats.

Ok...

After a minor crisis last night in which I thought myself to be a Canadian criminal, I have returned and do intend to post about the Canadian election using my program.

Here's how I'm going to do this.

Later tonight, I'm going to use a combination of SES and Ipsos polling data to predict as many seats as I can, in which both polls agree. I will list the province, riding, current party affiliation and predicted next party affiliation.

Then, tomorrow, likely in the mid-afternoon, I will post data for however many ridings remain, and the two will serve as my projection of the 2006 Canadian election.

Ready for PM Harper...?

By a vote of 171-133, the Tories, the Bloc, and the NDP threw out the minority government of Liberal Prime Minister Paul Martin.

Truly, res bonae

Great news on a front near and dear to my heart.

*title--res bonae=good things*

I know...

perfectly well that I have been bad about blogging in the recent past. That said, I'm back, at least for a night.

First order of business is the absolutely hilarious joke over at The Bully Pulpit . It's about Jesus and the Republican, Libertarian, and Democrat. Enjoy.

Second are a series of endorsements as to tomorrow
For Cleveland mayor: No candidate
For NYC mayor: No candidate
For Governor of New Jersey: Douglas Forrester
For Governor of Virginia: Jerry W. Kilgore
For SHBOE: F. Drexel Feeling
For Shaker Council: Gleisser, Ruffner, Zimmerman
Ohio Issues:
Issue 1: YES
Issue 2: NO
Issue 3: NO
Issue 4: NO
Issue 5: NO
County Issues:
Issue 6: YES
Issue 7: NO
California Issue 73: YES

Thirdly, my predictions on the races and other items noted above:
Cleveland Mayor: Jackson, 51-49
NYC Mayor: Bloomberg, 70-30
NJ Gov: Corzine, 52-48
VA Gov: Kilgore 51-47-2
SHBOE: Bliss, Feeling, Sutherland (3 seats, 3 people running)
Shaker Council: George, Gleisser, Zimmerman
Ohio Issues
YES: 1, 2
NO: 3, 4, 5
County Issues:
YES: 6, 7
NO: ------
California Issue 73: YES

Plaudits...

to the good Senator from Oklahoma. Vote for the amendments, you craven scum!

first one (about the stuff in Westerly, the one I linked to) was defeated 86-13(Kyl, McCain, Allen, Coburn, Feingold, other usual suspects...)

Craven #$%^&...